October 2006

// posted October 02, 2006 by Lou Schuler

So, in the first round, the Cardinals are going to travel to San Diego. I guess that's best -- let the team get demolished two time zones away from St. Louis, and three time zones away from its most obsessive fan. That way, the games will end late and the kids won't be traumatized by the carnage.

As I said in this post, I'm not turning on my team or disparaging anyone's effort. Of course you're going to suck when you lose your number-two starter, your closer, your Gold Glove center fielder, and, for much of the second half, your shortstop. No team could lose that many key players and still win.

This year's Cardinals, with 83 wins, aren't much different from the '98 and '03 teams, which won 83 and 85 games and missed the playoffs. These Cardinals, had they played in a division in which any team played reasonably well, would've been on the golf course this morning, rather than packing for the trip to San Diego. (I love this line from St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz: "Will they charter an airplane for the flight to San Diego ... or be transported on a Medivac helicopter?")

All that said, there is some precedent for a team having the worst record in the eight-team playoff field going on to win the whole thing:

[S]ince the three-division system came into play in both leagues in 1995, only one team that had the best regular-season record has won the World Series. That team was the 1998 New York Yankees, who won 114 regular-season games. ...


But while only one team with the best regular-season record has won a World Series since 1995, two teams with the eighth-best mark have won.


In 2000, the Yankees won just 87 games in the regular season but won the World Series. The next year, Arizona, with 92 wins, also had the eighth-best record but captured the Series. The Florida Marlins had the sixth-most wins out of eight teams in 2003 when they won their second World Series title.

I don't think the Cardinals will be mentioned among those teams; if this team is remembered, I suspect it'll be as a potentially good team that got wiped out by injuries. If they win a single game against San Diego, it'll be an upset.


My annual lesson in humility


Before I throw out some predictions, let me point out that, just two weeks ago, I had a completely different take on the postseason. But then Pedro Martinez of the Mets and Randy Johnson of the Yankees got hurt. Since power pitching wins in the postseason, I don't like either team's chances now.

In the NL, I'll take San Diego over the Cards and, in an upset, the Dodgers over the Mets.

In the AL, I'm going with Minnesota over Oakland.

The Yankees-Tigers series looks like a toss-up to me. Detroit certainly has an edge with its power pitchers, but the Yankees have the most offensive talent money can buy, along with the home-field advantage. I'm going to pick the Tigers in an upset, even though I have no confidence that this is the right choice.

For postseason honors, I think Albert Pujols is the clear choice for NL MVP. If the Phillies or Astros had made the playoffs, Ryan Howard or Lance Berkman might've given him competition. Their statistics were pretty close to his. But let's face it: He was the Cardinals for much of the second half.

Joe Mauer is my pick in the AL, although lots of guys are right up there with him, including his teammate, Justin Morneau. But Mauer was the catcher on a team with some incredible pitching performances, and despite the wear and tear of that position, he still won a batting title and got on base 43 percent of the time. All that at age 23.

If I had a choice, I wouldn't give out a Cy Young Award in the NL. A bunch of pitchers had good seasons, but nobody had a great season.

In the AL, it's pretty easy: Johan Santana.

Now, if baseball awarded an "offensive player of the year award," a Cy Young Award for hitters (call it the Stan Musial Award), the winner in the AL would be Travis Hafner of the Indians, a guy who got hardly any attention this season despite an MVP-caliber performance. (In the NL, this award would go to Pujols.)

I don't have any clear thoughts about Rookie of the Year or Manager of the Year. I can't remember a season with so many good rookie performances in the same season in both leagues. I'd probably give the NL award to the entire Florida Marlins team, and give their soon-to-be-fired manager, Joe Girardi, the Manager of the Year award as well. (Is it my imagination, or did the Marlins fall out of Wild Card contention right about the time the team's owners started making noises about firing Girardi?)

In the AL, I'd go with Jim Leyland of the Tigers as the league's best manager. Best rookie? Again, there are so many choices that there is no choice. Yea, that's a cop-out, but it's early in the morning, and I need some caffeine.

Tags: sports